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How’s the Market? Q3 2022 Real Estate Review
While still considered a seller’s market, our July-September home sale activity signaled the return of some much-needed balance. Seattle and Eastside home prices still posted year-over-year gains in Q3, but rising interest rates markedly slowed the pace of both listings and sales. Houses also stayed on the market longer than we saw during the frenzy earlier this year—the average Seattle home took 17 days to sell, while Eastside homes averaged 25 days to sell. Buyers have a great opportunity to negotiate better terms now with an eye out to refinance when interest rates come down in the future.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
There is a lot of good news in Seattle these days: Progress is being made in taking back downtown, the West Seattle Bridge is open AND real estate prices are UP year over year.
Transaction volume is down 35% across the city, which we can likely attribute to the volatility in interest rates, but listing volume is also down 10%. This is comforting! Supply and demand rules the market, and the last thing this balancing market needs is more inventory. We think this drop in seller enthusiasm is likely caused by the golden handcuffs of their historically low interest rates and refinance boom: even if your home isn’t meeting your needs these days, that 2.75% interest rate might be hard to give up.
Seattle’s average list/sold price ratio is 97%. This means if you listed your home for $1,000,000 you could expect to sell for $970,000 in Q3 of this year. Compare this with 82% on the Eastside. Seattle home sellers are more realistic and less affected by the price bloat of the last several years. We didn’t boom as hard, and we may not feel the impacts of a market balance as sharply either.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
While we’re finally seeing the numbers reflect what the market has been feeling since May, it’s not as dire as one might think. Sales volume has slowed 38% year over year (based on total transaction count). However, new listings are also down (3%) which means the market reaching its peak has not sparked a sell off. This should keep our new normal buzzing along at pace similar to 2018 and 2019. Great homes that are priced right will sell—21% of homes sold above asking price and 40% of homes sold in the first 10 days.
Median list price is down 6% while median sales price is down 14.5%, which means homeowners looking to sell on the Eastside now have some data points to help them with realistic expectations of how to find the market. Average days on market is 25, which is higher than it’s been since Q1 of 2020! This is still slightly under the 6-year average. Don’t be tempted to think that there is something wrong with a home just because it has been on the market for a month; there are a lot of quality homes ready for their new owners.
The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Given the broader local news, we might expect doom and gloom from Q3 stats—this expert sees lots of opportunity and much needed stabilization after the crazy COVID boom. While median prices have fallen 1% year over year, the average price per square foot is actually UP. What does this mean? Comparing a median with an average is always a little tricky, but this likely points to a slowdown in the sale of larger homes.
To me, the better signs of market predictability are the months supply of inventory for the quarter (about 6 weeks for both condos and single family) and the average days on market (18 for sf and 57 for condo). These are all relatively healthy benchmarks, even though they’re markedly higher than in previous quarters. This is what’s causing media to report doom and gloom: inventory is up sharply (there was ONE active listing at the end of Q4 2021 vs 44 at the end of Q3 2022) and pending sales are down (57 vs. 94 last year in the same time period). When you compare our current numbers to any time period outside of the last two years, we’re faring very well!
The news of the day is interest rates. Heavy volatility in the markets and the administration’s drive to stem inflation have caused many buyers to pull out of the market. If you’re thinking you’ll wait for lower rates AND lower prices, you might be dreaming—if rates come down next year as predicted it will likely spur activity on. Our best advice: THIS is the market you’ve been waiting for. As a buyer you have choice, time and negotiating power for the first time since 2018. Capitalize! Then, refinance later.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Condos remain the tortoise as opposed to the hare like residential markets of 2020-early 2022. Slow and steady will definitely win this race as the affordability of homeownership shrinks with rising interest rates. Looking at combined condo data (Eastside + Seattle), months supply of inventory is down to about 6 weeks from 2 months last quarter. Low months supply of inventory and low cumulative days on market (23) are two of the leading indicators of market health, and both are as low or lower as they’ve been in the recent past.
Condo prices are also holding strong with no change to the average $ per square foot in Seattle and an overall 5% rise in median sale price year over year. The Eastside tells an even slightly better story: a 9% rise in $ per square foot and a 6% rise in median sale price despite a 41% year-over-year drop in the number of transactions.
Keep rooting for the tortoise. This is a necessary niche in our marketplace. The first rung on the property ladder is condos again for the first time in a long time, and we really hope our Gen Z and Millennial buyers take the leap!
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 22’ of waterfront on an 11,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 172 feet in Medina on Lake Washington, which commanded a sales price of $17,800,000.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
How’s the Market? Q2 Real Estate Review
While Seattle and the Eastside are still considered a seller’s market, buyers experienced some much-needed relief in the second quarter with new listings outpacing the number of homes sold. Rising interest rates have initiated a shift toward a more balanced market. Opportunities abound for both sellers (who are still seeing higher sales prices than this time last year) and buyers (who finally have some breathing room to negotiate price and contingencies). We expect this shift to continue with a stabilization of home prices rather than the steep upward trajectory we saw last year.
Click or scroll down to find your area report:
Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront
SEATTLE
The Seattle real estate market for single family homes is holding steady despite rising interest rates and slowdowns elsewhere in King County! The median sale price is up 9% since the end of 2021 (from $910,000 to $1,000,000). Year over year, the median price rose from $895,000 in Q2 2021 to $1,000,000 in Q2 2022 (also roughly 12%).
Anecdotally, we believe that Seattle continues to gain ground because it remains affordable when compared to the cities and neighborhoods to the east. Eastside median prices rose so sharply over the last two years that it left Seattle “in the dust” as the market leader of the region. As we know, slow and steady wins the race, though there is no way to know yet if this particular race is a marathon or a sprint.
Interest rates nearly doubled in Q2, though that seems to leave Seattle home shoppers undeterred. 86% of the sales in Q2 sold in the first 10 days at an average of 110% of list price.
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
EASTSIDE
Relief has finally come to home shoppers on the Eastside! New listings are up 13% year over year. Further, there has been a slide in total number of sales, down 18% year over year. This means there are more choices for anyone who is in the market to buy a home. Price gains remain steady for now, up 22% over Q2 of 2021. This is likely riding the wave of growth in late 2021 and early 2022, but with the higher supply and lower demand this is may be a trend that tapers off in the near future.
Average price per square foot saw its first quarterly drop since Q2 of 2019, down from $713 in Q1 to $685. The overall median price fell from a high of $1,625,000 in Q1 to $1,610,000 in Q2. Even more exciting for home buyers is that (when in competition) the list to sales price ratio is 109%— down from 119% in Q1.
If you’ve thought about selling your home, it’s still a great time. When a home is prepared well and priced right shoppers pay attention. Of the 2177 homes sold in Q2, 84% of those sold in the first 10 days. This isn’t far off of the 90% that was posted in Q1. It is harder to get noticed today than in recent memory—this is where choosing a true professional to partner with is so important! Windermere brokers have their fingers on the pulse and know how to make you stand out in a crowd!
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
MERCER ISLAND
Mercer Island continues to be a fabulous place to be a homeowner. Median prices and price per square foot both saw increases over Q1 2022 numbers (6.5% and 5% respectively). Anecdotally, there has been a pace change. We don’t expect that to reflect in the stats until Q3, and even then the numbers are likely to be favorable as we gained so much ground in Q1 of this year.
The data that supports what we’re all feeling can be found in the relationship between number of new listings and number of homes sold. In Q2, there were 116 new listings and 84 sales compared to the same period in 2021 when we had 124 new listings and 102 sales. So, if you’re feeling like inventory is “up,” it’s not because more homeowners are deciding to sell but rather it appears that demand is down. Another way to look at this is that we sold 82% of the active inventory in spring of 2021 but only 72% in 2022. These are healthy numbers but it’s enough of a drop for us to feel it.
If you’re a buyer trying to break in to the Mercer Island market, it’s getting easier. 83% of the 116 new listings sold within the first 10 days for an average of 111% of the asking price. This is the most favorable these numbers have been since 2019. Working with a local pro will be your biggest advantage to determine which homes will sell at a premium and how to get the best deal!
Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!
CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE
Condo average prices have seen their biggest quarterly rise since Q3 of 2016! As home shoppers adjust expectations amidst rising interest rates, the affordability offered by condos is an exciting place to turn. We are thrilled to see condos be a viable option as we recover from the pandemic and buyers return to more densely populated areas.
North Seattle (up 34%) and Capitol Hill (up 10%) are bright spots in the total number of condos sold year over year for Seattle. This makes perfect sense as both areas offer access to our growing light rail system and new retail opportunities that didn’t exist pre-pandemic. Seattle’s total sales year over year remained flat, literally zero, which means these two neighborhoods carried the entire city.
The same data point on the Eastside saw the entire area’s total number of sales fall 27% year over year. West Bellevue (down 51%) and Mercer Island (down 38%) topped the list. Meanwhile, prices on the Eastside are up an average of 20%.
Check out area-by-area details the full condo report.
WATERFRONT
Waterfront season is heating up. As expected, inventory is up from Q1 (32 total sales in Q2 v 17 in Q1), but what hasn’t changed is an average of only 6 listings for sale at any one time across all shorelines! Of all of the waterfront shorelines, Mercer Island boasted the lowest days on market with an average of just THREE days. Seattle had the highest days on market, with an average of 41 days.
The most affordable place to buy waterfront this quarter was Beach Dr in West Seattle at a closed sale price of $1,800,000 for 25’ of waterfront on a 17,000 sq. ft. lot. The largest piece of shoreline overall was 177 feet in Issaquah on Lake Sammamish, which commanded a sales price of $11,600,000.
This brief overview of the entire Seattle-Eastside private waterfront market, including Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish, illustrates the trends occurring in our region over time. This data is interesting and insightful but cannot replace an in-depth waterfront analysis provided by a savvy broker with years of local waterfront experience.
We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative, and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.
© Copyright 2022, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
